Arizona is seeing decreases in reported cases of COVID-19 as the omicron wave continues to wane, but death reports remain relatively high.
On Friday, health officials reported 3,054 new COVID-19 cases and 115 new known deaths.
Case numbers have been declining significantly recently, and public health experts estimate cases of the highly contagious omicron variant peaked in Arizona around mid-January.
Hospitalizations for the disease have been dropping steadily since late January, but are still at relatively high levels. Hospitals continue to be strained with high patient counts and stretched staff and resources.
On Thursday, 1,867 patients were hospitalized across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19, continuing a steady decrease over the past about three weeks. Just 149 ICU beds were available across the state.
The number of known deaths in the state was 27,513 as of Friday, after passing 27,000 known deaths on Feb. 10 and 26,000 deaths on Jan. 28. The state surpassed 25,000 deaths on Jan. 13, 16 days after it reached 24,000 deaths on Dec . 28, which had come 17 days after it passed 23,000 deaths.
Arizona’s seven-day COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 people ranked 25th in the nation out of all states and territories as of Thursday, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The state’s overall pandemic death rate ranks third highest nationwide.
State data on breakthrough infections
The state in December began publicly disclosing data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, and state officials say the data underscores the effectiveness of the vaccine.
The vast majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people not fully vaccinated.
Data from December show that 35.5% of cases, 20.5% of hospitalizations and 14.8% of COVID-19 deaths were among fully vaccinated people, and all the rest were unvaccinated people.
Unvaccinated people in Arizona had a 4.1 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19, 24.4 times greater risk of hospitalization from COVID-19 and 57.9 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 in December compared with fully vaccinated people, per state data .
Case rates and death reports
Previous days this past week saw the following new case reports: 4,284 on Feb. 12; 4,397 on Feb 13; 2,685 on Feb 14; 1,740 on Feb 15; 2,177 on Feb 16; and 2,781 on Feb 17.
Death reports for the past week were: 91 on Feb. 12; 16 on Feb 13; one on Feb 14; five on Feb 15; three on Feb 16; and 209 on Feb 17.
The Arizona Republic generally recaps the state’s daily numbers online in a COVID-19 updates blog and in a weekly recap story online on Thursdays or Fridays and in the newspaper on Sundays.
Arizona’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 people ranked 17th among all states and territories on Thursday, according to the CDC’s COVID-19 Data Tracker. Last week, it ranked 14th.
The omicron variant remains overwhelmingly dominant in Arizona, according to results from sequencing labs.
The state’s seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases was at 3,017 on Friday, compared with 5,485 a week ago and 10,572 two weeks ago. The previous record before this surge was about 9,800 in January 2021, according to state data.
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Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it’s measured. It’s been high in recent weeks, a sign of more community spread.
For most of December, Arizona’s percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 11-13%, before rising to 22% for the week of Dec. 26, 29% for the week of Jan 2, 32% for the week of Jan 9, 34% for the week of Jan 16, 29% for the week of Jan 23, 22% for the week of Jan 30 and 16% for the week of Feb. 6. It’s at 11% so far for the week of Feb. 13. The percentages are now conducted for all diagnostic tests, rather than for unique individuals tested, following a change to the state dashboard .
Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 8.3% as of Friday.
A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease’s spread is under control.
The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020, still remain among the worst in the country.
The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 373 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC, putting it third in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The US average is 279 deaths per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
New York City has the highest death rate, at 470 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi at 395.
Arizona surpassed 27,000 known deaths Feb. 10 after passing 26,000 deaths on Jan. 28, 25,000 deaths on Jan. 13, 24,000 deaths on Dec. 28, 23,000 deaths on Dec. 11, 22,000 deaths on Nov. 23, 21,000 deaths on Oct. 27, and 20,000 deaths on Oct. 1.
The state exceeded 10,000 reported known deaths on Jan. 9, 2021. Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.
Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks before because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.
A total of 1,962,920 COVID-19 cases had been identified across the state as of Friday.
Hospitalizations on the decline
The Arizona data dashboard shows 91% of all ICU beds and 94% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use on Thursday, with 25% of ICU beds and 21% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, 149 ICU beds and 535 non-ICU beds were available.
The number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 1,867 on Thursday after decreasing again over the previous week. Two weeks earlier that number was at 3,064. The record was 5,082 inpatients on Jan. 11, 2021. The highest number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in a single day during the summer 2020 surge was 3,517 on July 13.
The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona has been declining in February and was at 407 on Thursday, compared with 499 a week earlier. That’s still far below the record high of 1,183 on Jan. 11, 2021. During the summer surge in mid-July 2020, ICU beds in use for COVID-19 peaked at 970.
Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators were at 209 on Thursday. The record-high 821 was reached on Jan. 13, 2021. During the summer 2020 surge, July 16 was the peak day for ventilator use, with 687 patients.
Thursday saw 1,469 patients in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, below the record high from Jan. 11, when 2,589 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients were seen in emergency departments across the state.
Vaccination update
Arizonans age 5 and older are eligible to get the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older. Many individuals are eligible for booster doses, too.
The state reported nearly 5 million people in Arizona — about 69.3% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose as of Friday, with more than 4.2 million residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The state’s data dashboard now separates out doses administered to Arizona residents versus all doses administered in the state.
Arizona’s rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 59.7%, which is behind the national rate of 64.6%, according to the CDC as of Thursday.
Out of the vaccine-eligible population, people age 5 and older, 63.4% of those in Arizona are fully vaccinated, compared with 68.7% at the national level, CDC data shows.
Health experts strongly recommend booster shots for those eligible, especially with the omicron variant spreading. About 41.9% of fully vaccinated Arizonans over the age of 18 had received a booster shot as of Thursday, below the national rate of 46.4% for that same age group.
What to know about Friday’s numbers
Reported cases in Arizona: 1,962,920.
Daily cases are grouped by the date they are reported to the state health department, not by the date the tests were administered.
Cases by county: 1,237,579 in Maricopa; 247,464 in Pima; 127,862 in Pinal; 61,761 in Yuma; 56,453 in Mohave; 47,140 at Yavapai; 42,761 in Coconino; 37,321 in Navajo; 30,626 at Cochise; 21,621 in Apache; 16,749 in Gila; 16,510 in Santa Cruz; 11,803 at Graham; 5,091 in La Paz; and 2,179 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.
The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Navajo County, followed by Graham, Gila, Apache and Maricopa counties, per state data. The rate in Navajo County is 33,079 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the US average rate since the pandemic began is 23,512 cases per 100,000 people as of Thursday, according to the CDC.
The Navajo Nation reported 52,008 cases and 1,639 confirmed deaths as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.
The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 14,779 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Friday, including 2,470 in Tucson, 2,277 in Eyman, 2,230 in Yuma, 1,656 in Lewis and 1,148 in Douglas; 53,395 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 4,949 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-six incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 15 additional deaths under investigation.
The race/ethnicity breakdown of cases since the start of the pandemic in 2020 has been 39% white, 29% Hispanic or Latino, 5% American Indian, 4% Black and 2% Asian/Pacific Islander. Race/ethnicity of positive cases since the onset of the pandemic is unknown in 15% of cases, and listed as other race in 6% of cases.
Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, about 21% were younger than 20, 43% were 20-44, 13% were 45-54, 11% were 55-64 and 12% were age 65 or older.
Laboratories had completed 18,097,981 total diagnostic tests for COVID-19 as of Friday, 12.4% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. Percent positivity is at 11% so far for the week of Feb. 13. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.
The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.
A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, Mayo Clinic officials said. They say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.
Arizona as of Thursday had the ninth highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are Rhode Island, Alaska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, South Carolina, Kentucky and New York City, according to the CDC.
Arizona’s infection rate is 26,888 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 23,512 cases per 100,000 people, although the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.
Reported deaths in Arizona: 27,513
Deaths by county: 15,486 in Maricopa; 3,597 in pima; 1.518 in Pinals; 1,360 at Mohave; 1,126 in Yavapai; 1.109 in Yuma; 847 in Navajo; 581 in Apache; 533 in Cochise; 452 in Coconino; 354 in Gila; 220 in Santa Cruz; 169 in Graham; 130 in La Paz; and 31 in Greenlee.
People age 65 and older make up 19,395 of the 27,513 deaths, or 70%. About 16% of deaths were among people 55-64 years old, 8% were 45-54 and 5% were 20-44 years old.
While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 53% of those who died were white, 27% were Hispanic or Latino, 7% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data shows.
The global death toll as of Friday was 5,867,844. The US had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 932,157, followed by Brazil at 642,156 and India at 510,905, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Arizona’s 27,513 deaths represent about 3% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.
Republic reporter Stephanie Innes contributed to this article.
Reach the reporter at [email protected] or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.
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