The COVID vaccine works really very well.
It only works when you get the shot.
That is the message emerging from two studies of the vaccine’s impact on the deadly spread of the virus in nursing homes across the country.
A study shows that the vaccine dramatically reduced deaths in the country’s most vulnerable group – and protects both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Although some people who have had their injections may still be infected, most have few symptoms.
However, the second study proves that we are still prone to deadly outbreaks of the virus when only 50% of people are vaccinated – especially as new, more dangerous variants spread.
Currently, only 45% of Arizona residents have had at least one injection – just below the national average of 49%.
In Navajo County, 39% of residents were fully vaccinated. That is 48% of the over 12 year olds, 52% of the over 18 year olds and 66% of the over 65 year olds.
In Apache County, 50% of all residents are fully vaccinated, including 61% of those over 12, 65% of those over 18, and 78% of those over 65.
In Gila County, 41% of all residents, 48% of those over 12, 51% of those over 18, and 62% of those over 65 are fully vaccinated.
Attempting to vaccinate nursing home residents nearly eliminated deaths from the disease, according to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
More than 132,000 nursing home residents have died during the pandemic – that’s nearly a third of all deaths in the United States. Nursing home residents were first in line when the mass vaccination campaign began in December.
The latest study focused on 20,000 residents from 280 nursing homes in 21 states. Of these, about 4,000 were unvaccinated – about 20%. About 70% had two shots and about 10% had only one shot.
After a first dose, 4.5% were still infected with the virus. Most of these infections, however, were minor – often without symptoms. Of those who had both vaccinations, only 0.03% became infected, most of them with no symptoms.
The vaccination rate of 80% also protected the 20% who were not vaccinated. The infection rate of the unvaccinated persons protected by herd immunity decreased from 4.3% to 0.3%.
But before you start celebrating – consider the more sobering result of a second study – it focused on a cluster of new cases and deaths in a nursing home. Most of the residents were vaccinated, but only half of the staff.
A single, unvaccinated employee in the Kentucky nursing home has caused dozens of new infections – including 22 cases in employees and residents who have already been vaccinated.
Most of the vaccinated people who became infected had only mild symptoms. But a vaccinated resident died, according to the study by the Federal Center for Disease Control.
A total of 26 residents of the facility and 20 employees were infected by the only unprotected employee. Among those infected were 18 residents and four vaccinated employees. Two unvaccinated residents also died.
A new strain of the virus was responsible for the super-spreader event – which claimed three lives in a single facility, despite 90% of residents and 50% of staff receiving their syringes.
The variant had multiple mutations in the spike protein, which meant it could both spread faster and better bypass the vaccine’s protection. The study estimated that the Pfizer vaccine was 66% effective for residents and 76% effective for preventing infection. This is in comparison to the normal effectiveness of 95% against the previously dominant virus strain. The new variant has some mutations found in both the British variant previously studied and the variant that devastated Brazil and South Africa.
In Chicago, routine screening of nursing home residents identified 627 infections in 78 facilities, but only 22 of those were fully vaccinated. Of those who got the injection but got infected anyway, two-thirds were asymptomatic. Even so, two were hospitalized and one died.
Taken together, the studies show that the vaccines currently approved work just as well in practice as they did in the 50,000 people in the initial clinical trials.
However, these studies contain two terrifying lessons.
Fatal outbreaks can occur even at vaccination rates of 50 to 60%. Unfortunately, only about 40% of the US population is fully vaccinated, and perhaps 50% have received at least one dose.
This leaves the nation well under the protection of herd immunity – and vulnerable to the new accumulations of cases and deaths. The proliferation of the new, more contagious, deadlier, more vaccine-resistant variants only underscores the danger.
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