Phoenix Suns are a roadmap for rebuilding
The Orlando Magic are thinking a lot about proper rebuilding these days.
In reality, it is impossible to accurately predict the future or the way the team will go. It is impossible to say whether this remodeling will work – or what exactly is success, or how it should be measured beyond winning a championship.
Some conversions come together quickly, perhaps helped by being lucky enough to win the NBA Draft Lottery. Others have clear steps forward but a lot of anger and uncertainty about where to go next.
Inevitably, a lot of these conversions revolve around two things – finding the star to build around and choosing the right moment to slide your chips into the middle.
The Orlando Magic begin their rebuilding. You should take a close look at why the Phoenix Suns succeeded last year as a clear model for their upcoming remodel.
This year’s playoffs seemed to bring the potential for rebuilding and how quickly they can grow together to the top. The Phoenix Suns and Atlanta Hawks’ sudden entry into the Conference finals led many teams to believe that they were only a step away from the competition in this current NBA landscape.
That motivated a lot of the movements that took place that off-season.
But both the Hawks and the Suns were products of careful planning and construction around their superstar players. They picked the right time to put their chips in the middle and build their team.
Atlanta’s move was certainly a bit more risky and could almost have backfired this season. Phoenix had a little more confidence, however, that they were at the right stage.
The way many teams are built these days is not done by a free agency. The players have done a good job under the new collective agreement by maneuvering themselves to their dream team before their contract expires – signing wherever they want, with full bird rights anyway.
Dwight Howard was one of the first players to do so when he dictated where the Magic would trade him in 2012. But players have since honed this method. Unless you’re the Los Angeles Lakers or the Brooklyn Nets, players don’t flock to these cities.
The suns understood that. They knew they had Bookers – and time was running out to prove to him they could build a winner. They just needed a proof of concept before hunting the big fish.
Phoenix’s 8-0 run in the bubble that almost got the team into the play-in tournament and broke their decade without a playoff appearance. But that showed the suns what to do.
Like the Hawks, they felt it was time to strike.
Think about how the suns built their team.
In the 2015 draft you drafted Booker in 13th place overall. Deandre Ayton was the first choice in 2018. Mikal Bridges was acquired in a draft night trade in 2018. Cameron Johnson was a surprise election in 2019.
Phoenix had drafted a solid core of role-players with just one high lottery pick (Ayton) despite repeated trips to the lottery, with Boooker becoming a real star. The team banded together to do their run and knock on the postseason door.
Phoenix understood it took the right veterans to take the next step with the team’s coach.
What Phoenix had was a high salary that they were willing to switch (Ricky Rubio and Kelly Oubre) and a willing trading partner who wanted to drop his own high salary. Dealing with Chris Paul – without giving up draft capital in this rare case with the Oklahoma City Thunder – felt like the straightforward thing the Phoenix Suns needed to get over the top.
Nobody expected the Suns to be a contender for the championship. But everyone understood that the Suns were good, and they needed a leader and veteran like Chris Paul – and Jae Crowder, who also signed last off-season – to get back to the playoffs and get the most out of Booker.
This proof of concept before acquiring the big star – be it in retail or in a free agency – is a much easier way to replicate. It’s a formula any recovery team can use.
The magic is obviously far from this final step of the suns. But maybe you are not that far off this step after all. The team is certainly already trying to collect the players and contracts they will need for this final step.
For small markets like Orlando, the team needs to be prepared to move all-in when the team appears ready. The first step is to prepare the team for this important final step.
The team isn’t even sure they have the star to build around.
This is where their last renovation failed when Victor Oladipo or one of their other draft picks became a real centerpiece star. Orlando got the best out of Nikola Vucevic and got the team into the playoffs, but no one saw the team with him as the best player on the team beyond the first round.
Drafting Jalen Suggs was an important first step. He has star potential and everyone is excited to see what he can bring to the team. The Magic are still going to have to look over what they have with other young players in the roster – especially Jonathan Isaac, who is recovering from his injury.
It’s also pretty clear that Magic will likely spend another year in the lottery just to add another key player to the team through the draft.
However, the task for this initial phase of remodeling is clear: keep collecting and developing talent so that Orlando has something doable that only takes the last player to get them over the top.
This was the plan in the previous iteration that Jeff Weltman created, the team’s young players just stagnated too much after picking up their rookie extensions. Orlando may miss his window of opportunity to push all-in or fail to repeat his 2019 success to find the right “all-in” deal.
The suns essentially performed the exact rebuilding that magic has always attempted.
To do this, Orlando needs a Proof of Concept on their list. The team needs to build a functioning team and make the playoffs – or just miss it with signs of significant improvement – before the team can even think about going all-in.
That may not happen this year, but it’s still important that Orlando keep that goal in mind or otherwise become a permanent lottery wrestler team with no hope of advancement.
It’s likely why the Magic will likely try poking or renting the cap space they’ve created for the next off-season. It will be more important to be in position to make a deal than to make a splash in the free agency anyway.
The suns were a great example of team building. Their game with Paul paid off as he exceeded all of their expectations and agreed to stay and continue the growth the team has shown since the 2020 bubble.
Orlando and all of the other rebuilding teams hope to follow this path. But it takes the right first step. It takes patience to wait for the right player to move all in.
Most importantly, doing a proof of concept with local stars before hitting the market to complete the picture. Teams that do it the other way around often don’t make the progress they hoped.
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