Fun fact: In seven of the last 10 NBA finals there was at least one non-injury-related change of the starting line-up. Some of them, like the Lakers who started Alex Caruso last season, were relatively few. Others, like Golden State’s 2015 swap of Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bogut, transformed the series and the league as a whole. Teams tend to get more creative when their seasons are at stake. The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t quite there yet, but after losing Game 1, they’re not far off either. So let’s try to figure out what their change could be if they actually follow the path that former finalists set for them at some point in the series.
Pat Connaughton would be the obvious reserve to step into a starting role just because Milwaukee has no other options. The Bucks have seen firsthand how easily the Suns can hunt Bryn Forbes and Bobby Portis in pick and roll, and they trust no other reserves to play more than point minutes from the bank. The real question is who they might take off the starting XI.
PJ Tucker would be the obvious choice. He came off the bench when Donte DiVincenzo was healthy, and as valuable as he was against Brooklyn, he has no obvious defensive role in this match. Milwaukee tried to put him on Chris Paul to ease the move to Deandre Ayton by pick and roll, but that strategy resulted in a loss in Game 1. Putting Connaughton in Tucker’s place would give the offensive a much-needed boost to lend.
However, if Milwaukee wanted to go wild, Connaughton could use it for Brook Lopez. The Bucks had defensive success when Connaughton played alongside their other four starters because he is more changeable than Lopez. The side benefit of getting Lopez off the bench is that he can play with it when Ayton isn’t. Dario Saric, tearing his ACL, has created a loophole in the backup center for Phoenix that Lopez could exploit against Torrey Craig or Frank Kaminsky.
Mike Budenholzer is a rather conservative trainer. He may not change his line-up no matter how bad it gets. But what he tried in game 1 didn’t work, and if we see a replay in game 2, his hand could be forced. Let’s get to today’s top picks.
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Phoenix Suns versus Milwaukee Bucks
Recommended game | Phoenix Suns versus Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks made 16 3-pointers in Game 1 against the Suns. That’s not a huge number by modern NBA or Bucks standards, but it goes well beyond what Milwaukee normally gets in the postseason. In fact, that number is the same as what the Bucks did in a game after the first round Giannis Antetokounmpo played this postseason, and they hit that number with 11 fewer tries than the last time they hit 16. The overarching point here is that the Bucks are unlikely to be shooting as well again, but they still lost Game 1 by 13 points. There are areas for Milwaukee to clean up, but if Antetokounmpo doesn’t look like an MVP again on Thursday, it seems unlikely the Bucks will be able to score enough to keep up with a Suns team they are up against bad match. The choice: Suns -5.5
The logic behind this choice of Sun should also lead us towards Under. Game 1 only got 223 points and there was not only the hot Milwaukee 3-point shooting but also some incredible shots from Chris Paul. Even if Milwaukee follows the same defensive pattern in Game 2, Milwaukee is likely to get better shot variance simply because no team in midfield is as good as the Suns in Game 1. The lead may not change much, but expect both teams to have fewer goals than on Tuesday. The choice: Under 219.5
Milwaukee only won a quarter in Game 1. That was the fourth when the Bucks were playing small. That doesn’t mean they’ll get small for Game 2 as a whole, but it does likely mean that they’ll do so quite often. Given that Ayton already had 19 boards in Game 1, getting to 13 in Game 2 shouldn’t be too much of a task if the Bucks decide to stay small. The choice: Ayton over 12.5 rebounds
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