Apache and Navajo counties suffer renewed spikes in the unemployment rate – Latest News

The unemployment rate in Apache and Navajo counties has risen with a renewed spike in the pandemic – with little immediate sign, the federal government will intervene this time to help the unemployed.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate fell slightly in November – from 6.6% in October to 6.4% in November. That’s still 3.1% more than a year ago, and the pace of recovery has slowed over the past three months.

The situation is much worse in Arizona, where the number of new COVID-19 cases is rising two to three times the national average.

The unemployment rate in Arizona has actually increased – especially in rural areas. The numbers for Arizona reflect October totals and have not been updated until November.

The Arizona rate rose from 6.6% in September to 7.9% in October – 3.4% higher than a year earlier.

Thus, Arizona’s rate began to rise in October, although the national rate continued to decline slowly.

The situation is even worse in rural areas such as Apache and Navajo counties, which were plagued by high unemployment before the March pandemic.

The Apache County’s unemployment rate rose from 11% in September to 12.7% in October as the virus began to rise and many federal stimulus programs expired.

The Navajo County’s unemployment rate rose from 8.3% to 9.6% over the same period.

Santa Cruz County had the highest rate in the state at 13%. But Apache County was # 2 and Navajo County # 3. Even the Maricopa County power plant, however, saw an increase from 6.2% to 7.5%.

In November, a new wave of COVID-19 cases sparked fears that the nation could return to a shrinking economy – after restoring roughly half of the jobs lost since the pandemic broke out. Arizona appears to be particularly at risk, with the tourism-dependent rural areas being hardest hit.

Federal CARES ACT funding prevented the stalemate and unemployment last spring from causing serious harm to the economy, but a stalemate in Congress could prevent a second major round of incentives if cases rise, concluded economist George Hammond, Research Director at Arizona University of Economics and Business Research Center.

Arizona residents received approximately $ 40 billion in stimulus money in the second quarter of this year, increasing their personal income by 11.6%. Without the federal payments, income would have fallen 4%, the analysis concluded.

The stimulus money helped maintain consumer spending, increase savings, reduce layoffs, and boost construction and property prices.

From February to October, leisure and hospitality jobs declined 55%, professional business services 18%, education and health services 15%, government 12%, and manufacturing 6%. The sectors that saw growth were retail, transportation, utilities and “other services”, which were mainly driven by a surge in online shopping.

The U of A forecast originally forecast a return to pre-pandemic employment levels in early 2021.

However, the surge in cases, the return of restrictions, and the lack of action on federal stimulus measures have dwarfed those bullish predictions, the U of A analysis concluded. Even with the prospect of mass vaccination with a safe and effective COVID vaccine in late spring, the state may not be able to restore the jobs lost for another year.

“The pessimistic scenario assumes that the progress of the outbreak is less controlled than below baseline, which has a large negative impact on consumer spending, especially services. The result is a slower recovery. With this assumption, Arizona jobs will return to their pre-pandemic peak in the fourth quarter of 2021, ”concluded Hammond.

The outlook is also clouded by the rise in the long-term unemployment rate and the possible long-term decline in labor force participation – from 63% before the recession to 61% now. Studies have shown that people who cannot find work for three to six months often experience permanent loss of ability to work or drop out of work altogether. The extended unemployment benefits, which are included in the CARES Act and which are continued at a reduced rate by order of the executive, will finally expire this month. At that point in time, millions of people will run out of benefits for both regular unemployment and federal extended benefits. Various government eviction moratoriums will also expire this month, increasing the possibility of significant financial damage to millions of families.

Unfortunately, the number of COVID-19 cases has doubled in the past month, and hospitals are on the verge of being overwhelmed again in both Arizona and nationally.

House Democrats and Senate Republicans have pulled back in a new round of federal incentives for the past six months. House passed a second phase of the CARES bill worth $ 2.4 trillion, paying $ 1,200 for each taxpayer, extending weekly unemployment benefits of $ 600 a week, a few hundred billion in aid for schools and local governments as well as additional wage and salary loans for small businesses and businesses included other measures. Senate Republicans cited the record deficit and the problems with spending the first round of economic activity with a $ 300 billion package. The Republican plan focused on continued business and corporate credit, as well as liability protection.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers recently proposed a $ 908 billion compromise that included money for schools, government, businesses, taxpayers and the unemployed. The package cost three times as much as the Senate Republican leaders, but less than half as much as the house version.

This week the White House offered a separate $ 916 billion package that included some relief for state and local governments, corporate liability protection, and $ 600 payments direct to most taxpayers. The package is based in part on reallocation of $ 400 billion that was not spent from the original CARES ACT and other programs. The proposal does not include extended unemployment benefits.

The prospects for a compromise remain unclear, but the three sides of the discussion have at least resumed negotiations.

Peter Aleshire covers county government and other issues for the Independent. He is the former editor of the Payson Roundup. Reach out to him at [email protected]