S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices, the leading US house price metric. Data released today for May 2021 show US home prices continue to rise The data series has more than 27 years of history and is fully available at https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/. The house price increase in Phoenix leads the nation, according to the report.
“Phoenix’s The 25.9% increase led all cities for the 24th consecutive month San Diego (+ 24.7%) and Seattle (+ 23.4%) just behind, ”says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “As in the previous month, prices were strongest in the west (+ 19.9%) and southwest (+ 19.8%), but each region recorded double-digit increases.”
The following table summarizes the results for May 2021, including the house price increase in Phoenix. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices could be revised for the past 24 months based on the receipt of additional source data.
YEAR FOR YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine US census divisions, rose 16.6% annually in May from 14.8% the previous month. The annual increase in the 10-city composite was 16.4%, compared to 14.5% in the previous month. The 20-city composite recorded an increase of 17.0% compared to the previous year, compared to 15.0% in the previous month.
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Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-on-year growth among the 20 cities in May. Phoenix at the top with a price increase of 25.9% year-on-year, followed by San Diego with an increase of 24.7% and Seattle with an increase of 23.4%. All 20 cities reported higher price increases at the end of the year May 2021 compared to the year ending April 2021.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Seasonally adjusted, the US National Index was up 2.1% month-on-month in May, while the 10-city and 20-city composites both rose 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively.
Seasonally adjusted, the US National Index rose by 1.7% compared to the previous month, the 10-city and 20-city composite by 1.7% and 1.8% respectively. In May, all 20 cities reported seasonally adjusted increases.
ANALYSIS
“Home price growth has set a record for the second month in a row” May 2021“, says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index marked the twelfth consecutive month of rising prices with an increase of 16.6% over the previous year, compared to 14.8% in April. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-city composites (plus 16.4% and 17.0%, respectively). The strength of the market remains diversified: all 20 cities grew and all 20 grew more strongly in the 12 months ending in May than in the 12 months up to the end of April. Prices in 18 of our 20 cities are now reaching all-time highs, as are the National Composite and the 10 and 20 city indices.
“A month ago I described April’s performance as ‘really exceptional’ and this month I’m running out of superlatives. The 16.6% increase is the highest in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. Like last month, five cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – joined the National Composite and posted the highest 12-month gains ever. The price gains in all 20 cities were in the upper quartile of historical performance; in 17 cities, the price gains were in the top decile.
“We previously indicated that the strength of the US housing market is being driven in part by the response to the COVID pandemic as potential urban housing buyers move to suburban homes. May’s data continue to agree with this hypothesis. This surge in demand could simply represent an acceleration in purchases that would have taken place over the next few years anyway. Alternatively, there could have been a secular change in location preferences, which has led to a permanent shift in the demand curve for living space. It takes more time and data to analyze this question.
“Phoenix’s The 25.9% increase led all cities for the 24th consecutive month San Diego (+ 24.7%) and Seattle (+ 23.4%) just behind. As in the previous month, prices were strongest in the west (+ 19.9%) and southwest (+ 19.8%), but each region recorded double-digit increases. “
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