The prospects for safe in-person tuition continue to improve, with new research on limiting the spread of the virus in schools, as well as developing a safe, highly effective vaccine.
Most Arizona public school students have taken face-to-face classes in the past few weeks after Governor Doug Ducey ordered the end of distance learning nationwide – with the exception of high schools in communities where the virus is widespread.
A massive national study showed that when schools test students with symptoms, enforce mask mandates, vaccinate teachers, and restrict group and extracurricular activities, the risk of spreading the virus on campus drops dramatically.
Even with minimal or inconsistent precautions, face-to-face classes pose the greatest risk to teachers, staff, and families at home thanks to the encouraging resistance of most children to developing serious symptoms when infected. In Arizona, people under 20 make up 16% of confirmed cases but 0% of deaths – a total of 27 out of 17,000 deaths across the state.
Even better, Pfizer-BioNTech announced last week that its two-shot vaccine was shown to be 100% effective at preventing symptoms in a study of approximately 2,200 children ages 12-15. More vaccine studies with other approved US vaccines and younger children are ongoing.
The results suggest that children could be fully protected from COVID before the start of the next school year if their parents opted for a vaccination. The clinical study of 2,200 children found the vaccine to be 100% effective against symptoms, with no serious side effects and with few of the short-term effects that the shot has on many adults.
Children developed an even stronger antibody response to the vaccine than adults, suggesting that the vaccine was even more effective at protecting them.
Epidemiologists greeted the news with relief, although the results have not yet been verified by outside scientists or published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Experts say the US won’t tame the pandemic until 80 or 90% of the population is given one of the three approved, high-potency vaccines. Children under the age of 18 make up 23% of the population – therefore herd immunity protection is only possible if most children are also vaccinated.
Unfortunately, recent public opinion polls suggest that only 55% of Americans say they either have already been vaccinated or intend to get the shot. About 23% say they don’t plan on getting the shot, the rest are undecided. Unless doctors convince about half of those vaccine skeptics to get the shot, the virus will keep circulating and cause outbreaks. The spread of more infections, possibly more deadly varieties, only increases the risk.
The CBS News / YouGov poll found that Republicans are far less likely than Democrats. About 33% of Republicans said they wouldn’t get the shot, compared to just 10% of Democrats.
In Gila County, the CDC reported Monday that 30% of residents were fully vaccinated, including 48% of those over 65. This is still well below the level required to achieve herd immunity.
In Navajo County, 30% of all residents and 54% of those over 65 were fully vaccinated. In Apache County, 41% of all residents and an encouraging 69% of those over 65 have fired their shots – drastically reducing the likelihood that a new surge in the virus will cause the same high death rate.
About three million other Americans receive one of the three approved vaccines every day. At the current pace, 90% of Americans will get a shot by July 22nd, effectively ending the pandemic. However, this depends on significantly reducing vaccine hesitation. In Arizona, 32% of the population received at least one shot – but only 19% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.
Experts say this means people should continue to wear masks in public and limit their exposure to “super spreader” events that bring large numbers of unvaccinated people together. The latest advice from the CDC suggests that those who are fully vaccinated are at low risk of traveling with other vaccinated people or of congregating in small groups.
The increasing spread of more strains of the virus has underscored the advice of small groups.
Fortunately, a growing body of research suggests schools can work safely even if the virus continues to spread across the community – provided they routinely screen students for symptoms, get teachers vaccinated, and limit group activities such as sporting events, gatherings and activities other activities that do bring many people together in a small space.
Research by doctors at Princeton’s Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and the University of Geneva was based on a massive online survey of more than 500,000 people. The researchers tracked a variety of COVID symptoms and then correlated infection rates with school guidelines.
The study found that “with seven or more mitigation measures, the association between personal schools and COVID-19-related outcomes all but disappears. Teachers working outside the home were more likely to report COVID-19-related results, but that link to other professions like healthcare and office work. “
The study found that children taking face-to-face training were more likely to infect other members of their household, but even that risk disappears “with properly implemented school-based mitigation measures”.
Each of the major mitigation measures reduced the risk of spread to teachers and families by approximately 9%. The greatest benefits came from screening for symptoms, teacher mask mandates, and dropping out of extracurricular activities. Other measures such as closing cafeteria and playgrounds or putting up desk signs had no effect.
So living with children increases the risk of brothers, sisters, parents, and grandparents becoming infected – but personal classes don’t really increase that risk as long as schools put in a handful of protective measures.
The risk for family and friends of having a child in the household increases with the age of the student. Kindergarten teachers and pre-kindergarten teachers do not pose a risk in principle. Most of the time, the risk is limited to the families of the pupils.
The Federal Centers for Disease Control had already responded to a growing body of research and suggested that schools can safely resume personal teaching with certain protective measures. The latest direction suggests that schools can only provide three feet of “social distance” in the classroom, rather than six feet. Ventilation in the classroom – like filtered air handling equipment and opening windows – can also reduce the risk. This greatly simplifies logistics by bringing 20 or 30 students back into a single classroom.
Interestingly, the Johns Hopkins study found that attending half days, hybrid schedules, or other more elaborate changes to schedules didn’t have a big impact on reducing transmission rates in schools.
The study concluded, “Even when students are infected, the risk of serious illness and death in teenagers and young children is low. This means that one of the main reasons for focusing on schools is not the risk to students, but the risk personal schooling poses to teachers and family members, as well as the impact on the course of the epidemic as a whole. “
Fortunately, Arizona put teachers in one of the early risk group categories – so most teachers who wanted the shot were vaccinated weeks ago.
This has drastically reduced the risk that an infected student would pose a risk to a teacher. In addition, vaccinated teachers no longer need to be quarantined if they come into contact with an infected student in class. This has greatly simplified the challenge of keeping a teacher in front of every class amid a nationwide shortage of teachers and representatives.
However, initially only 75% of Payson teachers opted for the free vaccine. This signals the possible battle for a vaccination rate of 80 or 90%, at which the pandemic will finally go away.
Even then, the spread of new, more infectious variants that have been incubated in other countries with far lower vaccination rates requires constant vigilance. Vaccine manufacturers are already working on new formulas and booster shots to deal with the new variants.
Peter Aleshire covers county government and other issues for the Independent. He is the former editor of the Payson Roundup. Reach out to him at [email protected]
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